A yokel Bostonian bumbling through Beijing. Musings on life, China, my homeland, the wide gulf between the two and the bridges that people are building to cross it.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Media "Bias" in Israel is Our Own Damn Fault
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
China's Madoff Scandal: The Biggest Fraud Being Perpetrated Against US Investors That You Haven’t Heard About (and why it's the best thing to happen to Chinese businesses in a decade)
"Biggest story that the media isn’t writing about: The growing number of Chinese companies under investigation for fraud."
These stories are very well-written and go into great detail about what has been happening but they don’t really talk about why this all happened in the first place.
- Business here is ALL about relationships - Deals just don’t get done unless a relationship exists or is developed over time. Companies that have boards of directors will pack them with Party people or loyalists/allies/relatives of Party people. This ensures that the right relationships exist to grease the wheels of bureaucracy.
- Corruption is a part of life - There are kickbacks on top of kickbacks with just about everything that you want to do here. While that can actually provide a bit of certitude (i.e. you KNOW that things will get done once you've paid off the right people), you're also in danger of falling victim to the always-shifting political winds. If your "sponsor" is on the outs one week you could find your whole deal scuttled, no matter how good it is.
- It's all about the Benjamins – There is an unprecedented amount of cash floating around in China. This is as a result of having such a closed monetary system and it fuels he rampant inflation. It's looking for places to go and you can never be 100% sure if investments are legit or laundering schemes that the government (or some high-level official) has set up to hide their "hot money".
Saturday, April 2, 2011
The Garbage Polluting My Feed
I've been sitting over here in China watching with detached, mild frustration at the idiotic piling-on of teachers and other public sector workers by people who just 18 months ago were bemoaning the possibility of canceling the bonuses of bankers and investment house executives who had taken TARP money. (BTW: That program just turned a profit.)
With a busy work schedule, a Russian girlfriend and some special personal projects that I've been working on I haven’t had too much time or inclination to get too fired up about what's been happening back in my homeland.
Also, I have lots of TV and movies to catch up on.
But today something changed. My friend Sandra posted a column from the Wall Street Journal by Stephen Moore in her Facebook feed and it really pushed my buttons. I'm not sure why, but it turned out to be the proverbial straw.
Something like this only contributes to the demonization of public sector workers by implying that they're well-off or that what they do is inherently wasteful and it really bothers me that people actually read this and think to themselves, "Right on!"
I started picking it apart point by point in my head and couldn’t stop my fingers from flying over the keyboard. Strap in for a wonky ride, 'cause here I go…
"Consider this depressing statistic: Today in America there are nearly twice as many people working for the government (22.5 million) than in all of manufacturing (11.5 million). This is an almost exact reversal of the situation in 1960, when there were 15 million workers in manufacturing and 8.7 million collecting a paycheck from the government… It gets worse. More Americans work for the government than work in construction, farming, fishing, forestry, manufacturing, mining and utilities combined. We have moved decisively from a nation of makers to a nation of takers."
1) The reduction in manufacturing jobs in the US has nothing to do with the "growth" of government. Comparing the number of workers in government to the number of manufacturing jobs is a red herring. One has nothing to do with the other and changes in their numbers over time explain nothing. It even has little to do with the switch from "giving" to "taking" as the entire economy has shifted to being services- and information-based. That's what happens when you get really prosperous.
So right away the entire premise of the column is flawed. But wait. There's more.
2) US population in 1960: 179 million. In 2010: 309 million. That's a 42.1% increase. Federal government workers in 1960: 1.81 million. 2009: 2.10 million. That's a paltry 13.9% jump. Clearly, the government has been adding services since 1960. Medicare. Medicaid. The Great Society programs. Yet it is growing at a VASTLY slower rate than the population as a whole. Can it possibly be that government is actually efficient? When this writer asks later, "Where are the productivity gains in government?" I would simply point to those statistics.
Even that doesn’t tell the whole story. When you discount Homeland Security (a division of government that didn’t exist before 2002 and few would argue that you can get rid of) and added Veterans Affairs workers (needed to handle the massive influx from two wars), the total number of federal workers goes down to 1.89 million in 2009 which is actually just a 4.3% increase from 1960.
In essence, almost all of the growth of the federal workforce over the past 50 years can be traced to 9/11 and the US's involvement in 2 wars. Which, I might add, were championed by the Right and certainly benefit international contracting companies and arms suppliers (not to mention mercenaries) more than they do the US economy.
"Iowa and Nebraska are farm states, for example. But in those states, there are at least five times more government workers than farmers."
3) This should be a call to arms about the ravages of big agribusiness and not of the dangers of increased government payrolls. Any small/family farmer will tell you that massive supply chain inequities and disparate populations that cluster in far-flung cities are the reason that small farms can’t hang on. That's why there are fewer farmers. But nobody who writes for the WSJ will want to talk about that. They'll just throw out those numbers to pull at your middle-America-loving heartstrings.
"Surveys of college graduates are finding that more and more of our top minds want to work for the government. Why? Because in recent years only government agencies have been hiring, and because the offer of near lifetime security is highly valued in these times of economic turbulence."
4) I don't know which survey he's talking about because he doesn't cite any, but college students haven’t traditionally looked at government work as being very promising. (That trend has been changing of late, however; many reasons are given, including a desire to serve and "give back".) It's a lot more complicated than he makes it seem.
Though he is not completely wrong. As recently as 2005, government wasn’t seen as such a great place to end up, with 57% saying that the pay and benefits weren't good enough. I wonder what happened between then and now to make a steady paycheck with health and pension plans look so good? Either some huge salary increases were enacted, or maybe it's the fact that companies simply don’t offer pensions anymore and health care is nigh-unaffordable. That seems to be more of an indictment of corporate greed during a time of record profits than of government spending.
And there was also the whole recession thing.
"Mass transit spends more and more every year and yet a much smaller share of Americans use trains and buses today than in past decades."
This is REALLY bothersome. In cities with subways ridership is at or near record levels! But, as everybody knows, the population has been growing the most in areas of the country where there are few or no mass transit options so OF COURSE "a much smaller share" of the population is using rail. What he doesn’t mention is that in places like Phoenix or Denver or Minneapolis where new light rail projects have opened in recent years (only after overcoming, in some cases, 15 years of opposition), the useage numbers are way above forecast. Build it and they will come. And economic development is not far behind. Is that wasteful?
I'm stopping there. If you read the full piece then you now that I've skipped the two other big points: That schools are crappy even though spending has gone through the roof, and that cities should explore contracting out their public safety services (police, fire & EMS) to save money. Each of those points are so inflammatory that they need posts of their own. I could go on for 20 pages about the state of American schools alone. Do they suck? On the whole, yes. Is it the "fault" of them being run by government? Of course not.
But that's another angry blog post for another slow work night.
I wish that my friends would stop reading this simplistic garbage.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
My So-Called Democracy
First off, can we please stop using the term "two-party system"? Our system makes no allowances at all for any parties. They're not mentioned anywhere in the Constitution, nor are there any allowances made for any political processes at all other than dates for voting and vague dictates about states organizing their own election systems.
Parties are merely tools that we have invented as a means to organize ourselves. The fact that we have traditionally chosen to only allow two "major" parties at a time to vie for our attention/support is a reflection on us as a people and not our "system". Even the term "third party" is derisive and suggests that there should only be two; as if a "third" is somehow an anomaly.
Arianna quoted the brilliant P.J O'Rourke from an event that she attended where they debated this subject and I think that his comments are spot-on:
"Republicans and Democrats don't have ideologies. They just have these vague platform planks made of rotten wood of political expediency. If American party platforms were backyard tree forts, you would not let your children climb in them."
Then Arianna went over the litany of issues that a limited debate exacerbates:
Why are the too big to fail banks still too big to fail? Why is there still so little emphasis on jobs at a time when 26 million Americans are unemployed or underemployed? Why did our system recently fail us in three spectacular ways: the financial meltdown, the Upper Big Branch mining disaster in West Virginia where 29 miners died, and the BP oil spill in the Gulf?
On issue after issue -- education, our crumbling infrastructure, the rising costs of health care, the deficit, the steady decline of the middle class, foreign policy (where the two parties marched arm in arm into invading a country that did not after all have WMD or pose a threat to our national security) -- our current two-party system has failed us.
We definitely need new voices in our political dialogue. The media perpetuates a constant "A" vs. "B" narrative because it's cheap, easy and it has a nice hook. It's an ongoing soap opera that would get infinitely more complex and less inherently soundbite-y if 3 or 4 or even 5 groups needed to be included in any of their staged face-offs.
Most importantly, WE are to blame for this. We've let ourselves be brainwashed by the two major parties. We buy their line about how we can't "waste" a vote on somebody who doesn't have a "D" or an "R" next to their name. We nod our heads when somebody says that they can't vote for that level-headed Green/Libertarian/Reform Party candidate because they "can't win."
(Such a preposterous notion, that somebody on a ballot "can't" win. All you need is the most votes! And since when do we care more about backing somebody who "can" win over our desire for governance by people who we feel are most qualified and/or best represent our views and interests? It's just stupid!)
For all of our claims of loving a free market, we seem pretty content to let a bunch of political hacks impose lots of controls on the marketplace if ideas.
Kicking our addiction to just two parties will take a lot of work. Think twelve-step program instead of just waking up and smelling the coffee. Because while our "system" doesn't care how many parties we have (if any), our abdication of our responsibilities as citizens has let the "Ds" and "Rs" hijack our government and effectively choke off the avenues of opposition from any other organized groups.
Here's where we need to make some major changes:
1) Redistricting - This is the key to everything. So long as politicians who are beholden to their parties are in charge of the decennial redrawing of political districts, there'll never be a chance for other groups to mount a serious, sustained effort to break through. California's Citizen's Redistricting Commission is a great example of how this might be accomplished and the next 18 months will serve as a great test case of how other states might implement their own non-political system.
2) Elections - Abolish party primaries. The state should not be funding intra-party elections at all. Let them have their own conventions. What we need is a primary system that does not force people to choose which ballot they get to weigh in on when they go to the voting booth. During the first round, everybody who has qualified should appear on the ballot. The candidates with the top two vote totals then get to square off during the general election. "But what if the top two are from the same party?" you ask? Well, too bad. Who says that we need to have opposing parties squaring off? You think that there aren't enough ideological divisions within parties to provide for spirited debate in that scenario? (Hello, Tea Party!)
3) Ballots - While I would personally like to see party labels disappear from ballots entirely, I am a realist and understand that people like them and that parties DO serve useful functions. Sometimes. So instead of deleting parties from ballots, why not open them up to more? In Oregon last year voters saw a list of candidates with multiple parties listed next to their names. Parties who did not nominate or qualify candidates in the election were allowed to register their "endorsement" of candidates. This lets them participate in the process and lets voters measure the breadth of support (if any) from outside of entrenched parties a candidate has.
Yes, that was only 3 steps, but each one of them has lots of mini-steps. (I haven't done the math but hope that it averages out to 4 steps each, otherwise my "12 step program" analogy looks pretty dumb.) They'll take a long time to implement, and they'd have to be done state-by-state. And while in a time of economic uncertainty and relative decline in the US, this kid of reform can seem unimportant, it is, I think, the single most effective thing that we can do as a country to revitalize ourselves.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Reading List for January 5, 2011: I is Educated
One of the recurring themes for all of these articles is, of course, the massive cultural differences between Western and Chinese education systems. The shorthand description, seen over and over again, is that China's schools emphasize standardized test prep and the learning of facts via memorization, while the in the US we stress creativity, research and collaboration. These are fairly crude simplifications of what's happening, but they serve the purpose of providing an easy to understand shorthand in the context of a short blog post or news item.
I'm no education expert, but some of the advantages and disadvantages of each system are fairly obvious. In China they may teach to tests and there may not be a lot of emphasis on teaching kids how to form opinions and how to explore alternate ways of reaching conclusions, but just about ever kid will finish school, they will be literate and they will know how to work in an academic setting. Focusing on a task, no matter how mundane, and working it through to its completion, is not a problem for them. In the US we foster creativity and strive to help each individual reach his or her own potential and we shy away from standardized tests, but we leave massive numbers of kids behind as legions of students don’t complete high school and a sizeable share of those who go on to university fail to get a degree.
But more than just offering an interesting study in contrasts, I think that the strengths of these systems offset each others' weaknesses. Can we find a way to combine the best elements of both systems? Is the Holy Grail of education a model that somehow fuses necessary memorization of facts and dates with in-depth analysis and debate? And how, in the end, do you measure success? Is there a single test that can be developed? Or do you need a series of tests combined with other measurements? And how many tests is too many before you are only teaching to them?
Like I said, I'm no education expert, so I'll leave curriculum development to the eggheads (and take potshots at their ideas from the sidelines). But what I am is living proof is that education is the silver bullet to economic advancement. I could never have risen up from where I started out without a sold educational footing beneath me. The Chinese understand this all too well but we in America seem to have forgotten it… or we just don't care too much if people in the next town over have.
And THAT is what should scare us about Chinese advancements in education – Not that they're may be starting to score better or whether they graduate more engineers and mathematicians, but that collectively as a country they care more about education and are DOING soothing about it.
"Chinese Top in Tests, But Educators Call for Reform" from NPR – Some insight into how and why the students in Shanghai were able to dominate on the international standards test last fall. More focus on the Chinese style of leaning and it's emphasis on memorization. The highlight for me? When the Chinese high school student who is interviewed says that she thinks that the Chinese way of learning and the Western way of learning should be combined. Out of the mouths of babes.
"The China Boom" from The New York Times – An emerging middle class will obviously want to send their kids to great schools and will have the money to pay for it, but as China continues to grow and more and more kids graduate from universities in China (they are building new schools at a prodigious rate), the One Child Policy will also play a role: Families who can not depend on government social safety nets as they age, and who traditionally depend of their children to care for them as they age, must place all of their hopes in a single progeny. And with fierce competition for a limited number of non-manufacturing jobs, a US degree is a big plus… This increase in Chinese students is a boon to universities because Chinese kids almost always pay full price; they don’t qualify for any federal aid. What's really ironic is that as Chinese families that can now afford US schools are striving to send their kids across the Pacific, we may see more and more American kids head to China. With tuition skyrocketing and family incomes stagnant, and with many families' home equity being shredded over the past 2 years, cheaper Chinese education options can be very enticing. It's true that most of the schools in China can't hold a candle to our universities in the US, but there are places that are comparable to American schools, especially if you want to study economics or international relations. And the prices for some of these schools, including full room and board and two tickets back home each year during holidays, are less than half - around $12,000 per year - of most liberal arts schools. And to say that learning Chinese and having experience/connections in China will give you a leg up is a huge understatement.
"Life as an International Student: Cultures Colliding" by Yeran Zhou – a direct response piece to the New York Times article, this goes into much deeper details about the cultural problems that Chinese kids often face when they come to the US for school. According to the writer, the Times article glossed over the problems and the sometimes serious unease that the Chinese expats experience. My favorite part was when a student talked about how hard it is to get work done in a US college sometimes:
Nai blames his lack of discipline on the American culture. “There is too much freedom in American colleges,” he complains. “I think I need stricter supervision.”
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Reading list from Wednesday, December 29
So I read a lot. Maybe too much. Every day I scour the web and use Twitter to find articles that interest me. These days, for obvious reasons, the topics tend to skewer towards China and China’s relations with the West, but they really can be all over the place. For instance, I am a transportation and urban development geek. I love to read about gender issues (especially in the developing world) and my old pre-law major rears it’s ugly head sometimes and I get all in a tizzy about legal ephemera. Then there’s politics and diplomacy…
Anyway, from time to time I’ll post my reading list for the day here, along with my thoughts on the articles. I’ll only take time to post what is interesting to me and sometimes I’ll only post one and write extensively on it. I may not have the time to do it every day, but whenever I can post items of interest here I will.
“Getting Corruption Right” by Jagdish Bhagwati – Some insights into what corruption is in India and how cultural context can help to explain why some things are permissible in one country but are seen as unacceptable in another. The first half is the best part.
“China Squeezes Foreigners for Share of Global Riches” from The Wall Street Journal – A slanted headline and a wonky article, but one that tracks some interesting developments in the world of international business. US and other Western companies are starting more and more joint ventures with Chinese firms. It’s something that I had been noticing recently with some of the smaller firms that I regularly deal with but I hadn’t seen it gong on with such heavy hitters as GE and GM. Basically, Western know-how and innovation is being combined with China’s better access to developing markets (like in Africa and Southeast Asia) and cheaper labor to create new pipelines of products. It’s sourcing on a new scale and implies a closer inter-mingling of our economies. One thing that the piece doesn’t go into at all are the implications for China’s currency policy. More international joint-ventures with global purpose will create more pressure for China to ease restrictions on the trading of the Yuan, if only to make accounting issues easier to deal with, but most especially if they start to become a de facto third party transaction hub.
“New Japan WikiLeak: A ‘Yuan-Yen Co-Prosperity Sphere?” from Japan RealTime – More diplomatic scuttlebutt with some very telling tidbits. Namely, that China has been actively exploring (though via back-channel discussions) ways to disentangle themselves from the Dollar, or at the very least to start healthily diversifying. What raised my eyebrows: “MOF [Ministry of Finance] officials have stressed how existing international financial institutions, such as the IMF, appear to be increasingly irrelevant in dealing with global economic problems.”
“French Deal to Sell Ships to Russians is Criticized” from The New York Times – The fall of Russia’s once mighty military-industrial complex and the shifting role (and perhaps increasing irrelevance) of NATO are all shocking developments, especially for somebody who grew up during the Cold War. This is the kind of event that presages a rule set change, and it is one that I happen to think that NATO is quite overdue for.
“Is This China’s First Stealth Fighter?” from Wired’s Danger Room – Before anybody panics you need to remember that no country on Earth will even fly planes against the US anymore. Not only is the size of our fleet overwhelming but our people are the best-equipped and most well-trained. Not to mention that our technology is way ahead of anybody else. That being said, China has been steadily increasing their military budget every year. All those trillions of US dollars in cash reserves that China’s built up from financing our mortgages and stocking our Walmart shelves? This seems to be where an ever-increasing amount of it is heading.
“The Chinese Consumer: Still Projecting and Protecting" by Tom Doctoroff – Wonderful summary of what makes Chinese consumers tick. A little on the light side because it’s a Huffington Post entry, but really enlightening. A very good read.
Back to Life
Recently I've found myself trying to squeeze more and more into those Facebook posts and in the process taking up and ever-growing amount of real estate on my friends' feeds. I'm getting the writing bug again and I need to do some more in-depth posts where I can figure stuff out. There are a lot of plans in the works for me this year and I want to make sure that I track it all and I have found that blogging is a great way to do that- kinda like a diary except way more narcissistic. Had it not been for my blog back in 2008-2009 I am sure that I would not have such clear memories of the whirlwind Beijing Olympics, or the non-stop party that was my first year living here.
Life moves pretty fast here in Beijing, and if the famous movie were made today Ferris Bueller might have chided his viewers to blog about it rather than just stop and look around.